Trump–Xi Meeting 2025: What the U.S.–China Trade Truce Really Means for Tariffs, Rare Earths, and Soybeans
- maggieahaadvisor
- Oct 30
- 4 min read
Everyone’s talking about the Trump–Xi meeting, but few can explain what actually changed. Here’s a clear breakdown of what the trade truce means and why it’s more of a pause than a peace deal.
TL;DR: What Came Out of the Trump–Xi Meeting
The Trump–Xi meeting in Busan was not a breakthrough. It was a reset.
Tariffs were reduced slightly, but they remain near record highs.
China loosened its rare earth export restrictions, returning to its previous approval system rather than removing them completely.
The U.S. paused its chip export rule for one year, and China did the same for its own export controls on key materials.
China’s purchase of a small batch of U.S. soybeans came after Brazil’s prices spiked, but the talk of twelve million tons this year looks unrealistic.
Both sides got the headlines they wanted, yet the deal is only a short-term truce.
For businesses, this means a few months of breathing space but the same long-term uncertainty.
When Politics Pauses, Business Holds Its Breath
When you live in Asia, you are told not to believe anything the Chinese government says.
When you live in the United States, you are told not to believe anything Trump says.
So let’s put politics aside.
As business owners, what does this Busan meeting really mean for trade, supply chains, and the year ahead?
Lower tariffs to around 47 percent, from 57 percent
The United States announced that tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from about 57 percent to 47 percent.
That sounds positive, but the reality is uncertain.
Neither government has released a detailed list or implementation schedule. Importers still do not know which categories are affected or when changes will take effect. For most companies, this is not clarity — it is guesswork.
Even with this reduction, tariffs remain near record levels. Before Trump’s September hike, they were about 40 percent.
So the temperature has gone down slightly, but the heat is still very real. Planning for expansion or pricing remains difficult.
Lifting restrictions on rare earths, but not completely
China has not lifted its rare earth controls.
It has simply reversed the September rule that required approval for exports containing even trace amounts of rare earths.
This rule had caused delays for manufacturers worldwide.
China’s return to the older approval system removes some friction, but it still keeps tight oversight.
It is a tactical adjustment, not a change in strategy. The export regime remains restrictive, just less extreme than before.
A one-year pause on the U.S. chip export rule
The U.S. will suspend for one year the “fifty percent rule” announced in late September.
That rule required foreign companies to seek Washington’s approval if their products contained more than half U.S.-origin technology or software.
The pause gives suppliers and Chinese buyers a bit of breathing room.
It allows mid-range semiconductor trade to continue without new reporting headaches.
But the restrictions on advanced AI chips and lithography tools still apply.
This is not a policy change — it is a twelve-month grace period before the next round of enforcement.
China pauses its own export bans
In response, China suspended its October controls on gallium, germanium, and other chip-related materials for one year.
This mirrors Washington’s move and creates a temporary balance.
Neither side gave up ground. Both are simply buying time for their domestic industries to adjust.
Soybeans: A symbolic reopening, but the numbers don’t add up
Right before the Busan meeting, China’s state-owned trader COFCO placed its first U.S. soybean order of the year — three cargoes, about one hundred eighty thousand tons, for shipment between December and January.
The timing was no coincidence. Around the same week, soybean prices in Brazil jumped, and China paused some South American shipments while testing the U.S. market again.
After the summit, U.S. officials said China could buy up to twelve million tons of U.S. soybeans this year. That sounds ambitious, but it does not look realistic.
China imported no U.S. soybeans in September, the first time since 2018. Most of its supply for this season has already been booked from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.
To hit twelve million tons, China would have to book and ship extraordinary volumes within a few months, which is unlikely.
This small purchase is more diplomatic than commercial.
It signals goodwill, not a return to large-scale trade. For agribusinesses, pricing and policy remain unpredictable, making it difficult to plan contracts or expansion.
No progress on the major issues
Despite the friendly tone, none of the deeper disputes changed.
Technology bans remain.
Investment restrictions remain.
Chinese industrial policy and subsidies were not addressed.
And nothing was said about Taiwan or digital sovereignty.
The meeting offered photos and soundbites, but not strategy shifts.
What this means for business
This meeting was about relief, not resolution.
Both sides needed to ease pressure on their economies and their domestic industries.
For business owners, it means temporary calm rather than long-term clarity.
Tariff pain may ease slightly, and export paperwork might get simpler for a while. But no one should mistake this for a stable new phase.
The next year is a window to regroup.
Review your supply chain, diversify your sourcing, and prepare for new policy shifts once the truce expires.
In summary
The Trump–Xi meeting did not reset global trade.
It simply brought both sides back to the point before things overheated.
For businesses, it offers a brief pause to breathe and plan — not a guarantee that the storm is over.